En4U – Pathways of a decentralized energy system considering decisions of private and commercial actors under uncertainty

Funding period: April 1, 2021 - March 31, 2024

The aim of this project is to analyse and understand the influence of uncertainties on operational and investment decisions of households regarding photovoltaic storage systems, electric cars and heat pumps, as well as the operation and investment of portfolios of modern conventional and fluctuating renewable power plants in combination with storage units. Furthermore, the resulting interactions of the players in the electricity market are to be understood. Taking these interactions into account, explorative development paths of the energy system will be analysed and prepared for the support of political decision-making processes. The project will first explore and quantify the uncertainties of the energy actors. As is so often the case in energy market research, not only economic, meteorological or political uncertainties are considered, but also social and qualitative aspects that are often neglected. Based on this, the market penetration of the technologies mentioned above is analysed using diffusion models.

The operation of the technologies in households is first modelled in a disaggregated way and then abstracted using neural networks in such a way that the operating decisions can be efficiently integrated into comprehensive energy system models. By developing and using suitable methods of stochastic optimization, uncertainties of conventional and renewable power plant portfolio operators are considered and their decisions are optimized. All partial results and models are then coupled with an agent-based electricity market simulation.

The effects of the uncertainties and the complex market interactions can thus be considered. Key results of the project are, besides electricity market prices, the market penetration of the technologies under consideration as well as probable development paths for conventional and renewable power plant capacities.